A decision‑first, numbers‑driven guide to choosing air or reefer sea for Indonesian seafood in 2025. Includes per‑kg cost formulas, realistic lead times CGK→LAX and regional lanes, spoilage risk modeling, and the break‑even logic we use with buyers every week.
We’ve watched mode choice swing seafood margins by 9–17% more often than people think. The decision isn’t just air is fast, sea is cheap. In 2025, fuel surcharges, reefer GRIs, and cash‑flow timing can flip your answer. Here’s the system we use with buyers to find the air vs sea break‑even in minutes.
The 3 pillars of the air vs sea decision
In our experience, every correct decision rests on three numbers: landed cost per kg, door‑to‑door lead time, and cold‑chain risk. Get those right and the rest follows.
How do I calculate landed cost per kg for air vs reefer sea from Indonesia?
Use a worksheet that forces apples‑to‑apples comparison.
Landed cost per kg = product cost/kg (FOB or Ex‑Works) + origin handling + international freight/kg + insurance + destination fees + last‑mile + finance cost + expected shrink/spoilage cost.
- Finance cost = product value/kg × daily financing rate × days in transit.
- Shrink/spoilage cost = product value/kg × expected loss %.
A quick CGK→LAX example (frozen fish, Jan–Mar 2025 snapshot ranges):
Air (door to door, chargeable weight equals actual):
- All‑in freight and surcharges: 6.50–7.50 USD/kg (base + fuel + security + airport handling + destination delivery)
- Finance cost: product value × 0.0002 × 4–6 days
- Expected loss: 0.5–1.5% of product value for frozen, 1–3% for chilled
Reefer sea, 40’ FCL (door to door):
- All‑in transport (ocean + O/D THC + dray + chassis + plugs + docs): 7,500–10,500 USD per box
- Usable payload: 20,000–24,000 kg net product
- Freight per kg: roughly 0.35–0.55 USD/kg
- Finance cost: product value × 0.0002 × 32–45 days
- Expected loss: 0.3–0.8% for frozen FCL, 3–7% for chilled sea (if attempted) and 1.5–4% for frozen LCL
What’s interesting is how finance and expected loss move the real answer. A 20 USD/kg sashimi item carries more finance and loss dollars than a 7 USD/kg commodity fillet.
What are typical door‑to‑door lead times from Jakarta to Los Angeles by air vs sea?
- Air CGK→LAX: 3–6 days door to door. Bookings are tight around weekends and holidays. Some carriers embargo fresh seafood on certain days or require pre‑cool verification.
- Reefer sea CGK→LAX: 35–50 days door to door. Port‑to‑port often 22–28 days. Add export stuffing, customs, drayage, and potential dwell.
Regional snapshots we track for planning buffers:
- CGK→Singapore: Air 1–2 days. Sea 5–9 days door.
- Bali (DPS)→Sydney: Air 1–3 days. Sea 14–22 days door.
- CGK→Dubai: Air 2–4 days. Sea 20–30 days door.
How much spoilage risk should I assume for air vs sea on chilled fish?
For truly chilled, non‑frozen fish, air is the norm because every day erodes shelf life. Our planning assumptions:
- Chilled by air: 1–3% expected loss on value. Proper gel‑pack density and pre‑cool reduce that to the low end.
- Chilled by sea: Only with superchill/modified atmosphere programs. If attempted in standard reefer, assume 5–10% loss plus shelf‑life penalties. We generally don’t recommend this for premium grades.
- Frozen: Air 0.5–1.5% expected loss. Sea FCL 0.3–0.8%. LCL frozen 1.5–4% due to extra handoffs.
This leads us to the question everyone asks next.
When does air actually win the break‑even?
What order size makes air cheaper than sea for Indonesian seafood in 2025?
Pure freight per kg? Sea almost always wins once you can fill FCL. But total landed cost can favor air when:
- Shipment is small and there’s no viable reefer LCL consolidation on the lane.
- The product is high value and you factor finance and shrink.
Working rule of thumb we use with buyers:
- If you can ship 12–14 metric tons or more in a 40’ reefer, sea is the cost winner for frozen goods.
- If you’re under ~1.0–1.5 tons and can’t access reliable LCL, air can be total‑cost competitive or cheaper door‑to‑door.
- With LCL reefer available, sea often beats air on freight up to 2–3 tons. But air can still win on cash flow for high‑value items that need to turn fast.
Is LCL reefer viable for small seafood shipments from Indonesia?
Viable on specific trade lanes with weekly consolidations and professional cold‑chain operators. Not all ports offer it. Typical economics we see:
- LCL reefer all‑in: 1.20–2.20 USD/kg after you add origin/destination per‑CBM charges, docs, and plug fees.
- Lead time: 3–6 weeks door. More handoffs. Higher temperature excursion risk at deconsolidation.
We use LCL when buyers want to build demand without burning cash on FCL. For premium frozen IQF products like Grouper Fillet (IQF) or Mahi Mahi Fillet, LCL is a bridge to FCL. For sashimi‑grade like Yellowfin Saku (Sushi Grade) or Bigeye Loin, we stick to air.
Do 2025 air cargo surcharges make air freight unaffordable for seafood?
Air rates ex‑Indonesia in early 2025 include higher fuel surcharges than mid‑2024. We’re seeing all‑in increases of roughly 8–15% on some long‑haul lanes due to jet fuel and capacity shifts into e‑commerce corridors. Even so, air remains viable for:
- High‑value chilled and sashimi items.
- Frozen top‑ups where stockouts would cost more than the freight.
- New market tests under 500–800 kg.
At what product value per kg does air freight start to make sense?
Our simple threshold: when the product value is roughly 12–15 USD/kg or higher and time‑to‑shelf drives turns. For sashimi and prime loins at 18–30 USD/kg, air is usually correct. For commodity frozen shrimp at 6–9 USD/kg, sea is almost always the winner unless the shipment is tiny and urgent. For context, we regularly air ship Yellowfin Saku (Sushi Grade) and Bigeye Steak. We sea ship FCL of Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught) and IQF fillets once volumes justify a box.
Week 1–2: Validate your lane with a simple worksheet
Here’s the fast way we pressure‑test a lane.
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Get three numbers for air: all‑in rate/kg from your forwarder, expected chargeable weight (check carton dims against 6,000 cm³/kg rule), and door‑to‑door days. Many miss the chargeable weight trap. Dense seafood cartons usually bill on actual, but oversized boxes can add 10–20% hidden cost.
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Get three numbers for sea: all‑in reefer FCL door‑to‑door, realistic payload you can actually load, and door‑to‑door days. A 40’ reefer rarely carries more than 22–24 tons of net product without compromising airflow.
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Plug finance and risk: choose a daily rate that reflects your cost of capital (0.015–0.03% per day is common), then apply the expected loss % ranges above.
Need help with your specific lane math or a quick break‑even check? You can Contact us on whatsapp. We’ll sanity‑check your per‑kg numbers in under 24 hours.
Week 3–6: Pilot shipments and A/B your setup
We recommend buyers run two small pilots.
- Air pilot: validate carton dimensions, gel pack load, and delivery windows. Watch for airline cut‑offs and weekend embargoes for seafood out of CGK.
- Sea pilot: test a mixed SKU reefer FCL if possible. If you must use LCL, choose an operator with monitored cold storage at both ends. Track core temperature at every handoff.
Examples that work well for pilots:
- High‑value air: Cobia Fillet (IVP / IQF) or Bigeye Loin into premium retail/restaurant demand.
- Frozen sea: IQF fillets like Grouper Fillet (IQF), Mahi Mahi Portion (IQF), or FCL of Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught).
Week 7–12: Scale and optimize
Once the math holds, lock in improvements.
- Contract capacity around your seasonality. Airlines will reserve seafood space if you commit to steady kilos. Carriers sometimes enforce weekend restrictions for perishables ex‑Indonesia, so mid‑week cut‑offs are your friend.
- For sea, step up to full 40’ reefers as soon as demand allows. The per‑kg drop from LCL to FCL is usually 35–60%.
- Use carton engineering. We’ve cut air chargeable weight by 3–7% just by optimizing dimensions to pack ULDs efficiently.
- Watch 2025 GRIs. Reefer GRIs of 300–500 USD per box showed up in early 2025 on some lanes. It barely moves per‑kg on a full box, but it hurts LCL.
The 5 mistakes that quietly kill seafood margin
- Ignoring cash flow. The carrying cost on high‑value fish over 6 weeks at sea can erase the freight savings you celebrated on day one.
- Guessing on chargeable weight. A benign carton change can add 0.30–0.60 USD/kg to air and no one notices for months.
- Forcing chilled onto sea. Unless you’re set up for superchill/MA, you’ll eat 5–10% loss and angry customers.
- Treating LCL like FCL. LCL needs more insulation, data loggers, and realistic dwell buffers at the CFS both ends.
- Over‑packing frozen for air. Gel packs are great for chilled. For frozen, they add weight and cost. Use proper glazing on IQF like Goldband Snapper Fillet instead.
Resources and next steps
- Decide fast with this rule: If your product value is under 10 USD/kg and you can fill 40’ reefers monthly, ship sea. If you’re 15–30 USD/kg or building a market under 1 ton per drop, air will likely win on total cost and speed.
- Want SKUs that flex for both modes? Our IQF portfolio travels either way. Explore options like Grouper Bites (Portion Cut), Kingfish Fillet (Portion Cut / IQF), and Snapper Fillet (Red Snapper). View our products to see specifications and packing formats.
Questions about your project or need a lane‑specific quote? Call us and we’ll run the break‑even with your real volumes and delivery windows so you can move with confidence.