A practical, predictability-first guide to building a 12‑month Indonesian seafood program. We share a simple risk score, the safety stock math we actually use, lead-time realities, and the contract language that keeps price and volume stable—plus specific species and product examples that work in fixed-price programs.
If you’re planning a 12-month supply program out of Indonesia, the wild-caught vs farm-raised decision makes or breaks your year. We’ve run fixed-price programs that delivered on the dot and others that fought the sea, the weather, and the market. Here’s the predictability-first playbook we use with quality-focused buyers: a simple risk score, safety stock rules that actually hold, lead-time comparisons, and the minimum contract language that keeps a 12-month plan on track.
What stays in stock year-round in Indonesia: wild-caught or farmed?
The short answer: Farm-raised species win for predictability. Vannamei shrimp is the most reliable 12-month option, followed by farmed barramundi and cobia. Wild-caught is doable, but you’ll need stronger safety stock and flexible specs.
What’s interesting is that not all wild categories behave the same. Large pelagics like tuna can be steady in aggregate, but grade/size swings and weather can whipsaw availability week to week. Reef/demersal fish like snapper, grouper, and sweetlip are more weather-sensitive because many are handline/small-boat fisheries.
From our programs:
- Low-risk for fixed price: Farmed vannamei shrimp. Farmed barramundi and cobia. Processed, IQF-frozen formats.
- Medium-risk: Mahi mahi portions, some snapper fillets, wild cobia loins when multiple landing ports are used.
- Higher-risk: Sashimi-grade tuna blocks and steaks, premium grouper cuts, small-boat demersal during monsoon peaks.
For predictable retail and foodservice runs, consider IQF retail-ready formats that buffer short-term landings, like Mahi Mahi Portion (IQF), Goldband Snapper Fillet, Grouper Fillet (IQF), or shrimp lines from Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught).
Do monsoons disrupt Indonesian wild-caught enough to avoid annual commitments?
They do disrupt, but they don’t have to derail a 12-month plan. Indonesia’s wet season and transitional periods bring rougher seas and shorter trips for small vessels. We buffer by front-loading frozen buys ahead of peak weather, diversifying landing ports, and holding extra stock through the highest-risk weeks. You’ll still commit annually. You’ll just plan smarter.
Can I run a 12-month fixed-price on wild-caught?
Yes, but not with a flat, no-adjustments price. We recommend a banded price with quarterly review and clear triggers. Two models we’ve used successfully:
- Seasonal band. Price A for shoulder seasons and Price B for peak weather months. Cap the variance with a ceiling/floor.
- Index-linked band. A narrow band around an agreed base price, with adjustments tied to a fuel index and exchange rate. Tuna programs often use this.
For wild programs, IQF finished goods reduce risk. Example SKUs that support banded pricing with safety stock: Yellowfin Steak, Yellowfin Saku (Sushi Grade) for premium channels, Mahi Mahi Fillet, Snapper Fillet (Red Snapper), and Goldband Snapper Fillet.
In the last six months, we’ve seen shrimp prices stabilize after a long oversupply phase, while tuna and demersal pricing remained choppy in certain weeks due to weather and fuel. That pattern reinforces this approach: lock farmed at fixed price, and run wild in a controlled band with disciplined inventory.
A simple supply risk score you can use tomorrow
We score each species/SKU on three pillars from 1 (low risk) to 5 (high risk):
- Price volatility
- Lead-time reliability
- Volume assurance
Average the three for a total risk score. Then set your rules. We target ≤2.0 for fixed-price, ≤2.7 for price-band programs, and anything above that needs either flexible spec or seasonal buying.
Example scores from our 2024/25 programs:
- Farmed vannamei shrimp, peeled or HLSO: Price 2, Lead-time 1, Volume 1. Risk score 1.3.
- Wild yellowfin tuna (saku/steak): Price 3–4, Lead-time 3, Volume 3. Risk score 3.0–3.3.
- Wild snapper fillet (IQF): Price 3, Lead-time 2–3, Volume 2–3. Risk score 2.3–2.7.
- Farmed barramundi (natural cut): Price 2, Lead-time 2, Volume 2. Risk score 2.0.
Use the score to choose the right structure. A low-risk farmed shrimp line can carry a 12-month fixed. A higher-risk tuna line gets a band and tighter PO rhythm. Want help scoring your SKUs and setting the right model for your category? Call us.
Safety stock that prevents stockouts without killing cash
Here’s the safety stock math we actually use for 12-month supply wild vs farmed Indonesia. Keep it simple and disciplined.
- Farmed shrimp (vannamei/black tiger): Hold 2–3 weeks of average demand. If your lead time is 2 weeks door-to-door, carry 1 week extra as a buffer. For weekly order variability higher than 25%, push to 3 weeks.
- Farmed finfish (barramundi/cobia): 3–4 weeks. Farm harvests can shift by a week due to growth rates and weather.
- Wild reef/demersal (snapper/grouper/sweetlip): 4–6 weeks through wet-season peaks, 3–4 weeks otherwise.
- Tuna sashimi/steak: 6–8 weeks frozen inventory if your specs are tight on color/grade. If your spec allows substitution within grade bands, 4–6 weeks can work.
Practical tip: Build the safety stock before the highest-risk weather window, not during it. And don’t “borrow” it for promos. That’s the number one reason good plans fail. For frozen IQF species, your carry cost is often less painful than an empty shelf.
Lead-time reality check: vannamei vs tuna
- Farmed vannamei shrimp. If the pond is in harvest window, we ship within 2–3 weeks of PO for standard formats (HLSO, PUD, P&D), plus transit. With forward stocking plans, we keep it to a rhythm. Farms typically run 90–120-day cycles, so we align stocking to your monthly volume.
- Wild tuna. We can ship in 2–4 weeks for most steak/saku programs when landings are healthy. But weather spikes can push that to 4–6 weeks. Grade-specific programs need more flex or more inventory.
This is why we pair a fast-cycle shrimp SKU with a higher-risk wild SKU in retail programs. The farmed line carries your fixed price and fill rate. The wild line brings excitement and margin upside when landings are friendly.
Contract levers that stabilize price and volume
For farmed shrimp suppliers in Indonesia, include these clauses:
- Stocking and harvest plan. Month-by-month volume, pond IDs, and harvest windows with ±10–15% tolerance.
- Size-grade tolerance. Agree acceptable ranges and substitution rules. Specify price adjustments per grade step.
- Volume commitment with performance incentives. Mild penalties for shortfalls outside tolerance and bonus for on-time, in-full.
- Price band or fixed price with triggers. Consider a feed index and FX band for long contracts.
- Rolling forecast and PO scheduling. 90 days visibility, with firm POs 30–45 days before ship.
- Contingency. Disease/weather events trigger predefined volume reallocation from backup farms.
For wild-caught programs:
- Seasonal banding or quarterly review. Tie adjustments to fuel and documented landing trends.
- Spec flexibility. Allow species complex or sub-spec substitutions where appropriate. For example, balancing Goldband Snapper Fillet with Red Snapper Portion (WGGS / Fillet) in the same program.
- Inventory strategy. Commit to carry a shared buffer of finished IQF goods during peak-weather months.
The 12-week setup we use to launch predictable programs
Weeks 1–2: Demand mapping and supplier validation
- Forecast your monthly volume and promo spikes for 12 months. Flag non-negotiables on spec.
- Score candidate SKUs with the risk model. Shortlist low-to-medium risk items for fixed/banded price.
- Verify capacity. Ask farmed suppliers for pond acreage, stocking density, planned harvests, backup sites, and historical yield. For processors, ask daily IQF capacity, cold-store space, and average weekly output by SKU.
Weeks 3–6: MVP and test shipments
- Run one or two trial POs. Validate cut yield, glaze, drip, and pack consistency.
- Tighten specs where variability shows. For example, lock trim spec on Grouper Fillet (IQF) or color grade on Yellowfin Saku (Sushi Grade).
- Build the first tranche of safety stock as soon as QC is confirmed.
Weeks 7–12: Scale and lock
- Sign the contract with price banding or fixed price, the stocking plan, and substitution rules.
- Set a rolling PO cadence. We like monthly POs with 90-day visibility.
- Implement KPIs: on-time in-full, grade acceptance, claims rate, and forward cover weeks.
Common mistakes that quietly kill a 12-month plan
- Fixed price on a high-risk wild SKU with no safety stock. Run a band or widen the spec.
- No substitution clause. If size or grade slips, you need pre-agreed alternatives.
- Borrowing safety stock for a promotion. It’s tempting. It creates a hole you’ll feel next month.
- One landing port dependency. Spread risk across ports and gears where practical.
- Late POs. If you send orders only when you’re empty, even the best supplier can’t help you.
Quick answers we’re asked most
Which Indonesian seafood is easiest to keep in stock year-round?
Farmed vannamei shrimp. Then farmed barramundi/cobia. For wild, mahi portions and snapper fillets are workable with inventory.
Can I run a 12-month fixed price on wild-caught Indonesian fish?
Yes, but use a price band or quarterly review and hold 4–6 weeks of safety stock. IQF formats make it feasible.
How much safety stock should I hold?
Rule of thumb: Farmed shrimp 2–3 weeks. Farmed finfish 3–4 weeks. Wild demersal 4–6 weeks. Tuna 6–8 weeks if specs are tight.
What contract terms reduce farmed shrimp risk?
Harvest plan with tolerances, size-grade substitution rules, price band or fixed price with triggers, rolling 90-day forecast, and contingency supply.
Do monsoons disrupt wild enough to avoid annual commitments?
They disrupt. They don’t prevent annual programs if you build pre-season inventory and allow substitutions.
Lead time: farmed vannamei vs wild tuna?
Vannamei 2–3 weeks post-PO in harvest window. Tuna 2–4 weeks normally, 4–6 in rough weather or tight grades.
What supplier questions reveal real farmed capacity?
Ask for pond acreage, active ponds, stocking density, historical yield per cycle, harvest calendar by pond, backup sites, aeration capacity per hectare, and average survival rate. For processors, confirm daily IQF throughput, freezer pull-down times, and cold-store capacity by SKU.
If you’re mapping a 12-month program now, browse viable SKUs to anchor your plan and reduce risk. Start with shrimp and IQF fillets here: View our products. And if you want us to score your lineup and propose a price and supply structure, Contact us on whatsapp.
We’ve found that the buyers who win don’t pick wild or farmed as a philosophy. They design the mix for predictability first, then let the sea deliver the upside.