A practical 2025 playbook for deciding exactly when Indonesian frozen seafood should switch from reefer LCL to FCL — with real break-even math, carton counts, lane-specific rate bands, and the cold-chain risks we see every week.
If you’ve ever stared at a quote wondering, “Is this the shipment where FCL finally beats LCL?” you’re not alone. In 2025, with rate volatility and some thinner consolidation schedules out of Indonesia, the answer depends on straightforward math plus a few risk calls. Here’s the exact way we decide for shrimp, tuna, snapper and mixed seafood SKUs leaving Jakarta or Surabaya.
The 3 pillars of the LCL-to-FCL decision
- Cost per kg or CBM. We calculate a clean, apples-to-apples cost including origin/destination charges and likely plug-in fees. No wishful thinking.
- Cold-chain risk. How many handoffs, how long unplugged at CFS, and how reliable is the consolidator on your lane? We’ve seen one missed plug wipe the savings from LCL.
- Lead time and schedule control. FCL has more weekly sailings and shorter dwell times. LCL can add 7–15 days door to door.
Practical takeaway: If the cost picture is close, risk and time tip the scale to FCL for higher-value or more temperature-sensitive SKUs.
The quick break-even method we use (and share with buyers)
Use this simple formula for any lane or product:
- LCL cost per CBM all-in (ocean + O/D charges) × shipment CBM = LCL total
- FCL total all-in (ocean + origin/dest fixeds + typical accessorials)
- Break-even CBM = FCL total / LCL per CBM
For 10 kg master cartons, it’s often easier to work per carton:
- LCL cost per carton = carton CBM × LCL rate per CBM
- Break-even carton count = FCL total / LCL cost per carton
Carton CBM varies by master size. Typical frozen shrimp or fillet cartons run 0.016–0.021 CBM. We default to 0.018 CBM unless we’ve measured your exact pack.
2025 lane bands we’re seeing (Q4’24–Q1’25 quotes)
- Jakarta/Surabaya to Los Angeles/Long Beach:
- Reefer FCL 20RF all-in (port-to-port + typical O/D + accessorials): 9,500–12,000 USD
- Reefer LCL all-in: 480–650 USD/CBM
- Break-even CBM: roughly 17–22 CBM
- Jakarta/Surabaya to North Europe (Rotterdam/Hamburg):
- Reefer FCL 20RF all-in: 10,000–13,000 USD
- Reefer LCL all-in: 580–780 USD/CBM
- Break-even CBM: roughly 16–20 CBM
- Indonesia to ASEAN hubs (Singapore, Port Klang):
- Reefer FCL 20RF all-in: 3,500–5,000 USD
- Reefer LCL all-in: 180–260 USD/CBM
- Break-even CBM: roughly 14–22 CBM
Rates move with capacity and bunker. Always recalc with your live quotes, but these bands are usable planning anchors.
What shipment size makes FCL reefer cheaper in 2025?
On most US/EU lanes, once you cross 16–22 CBM, a 20ft reefer starts to beat LCL on pure cost. If your LCL quote sits near 520 USD/CBM and your FCL all-in is 10,500 USD, break-even is about 20.2 CBM.
How many 10 kg shrimp cartons hit break-even for a 20ft reefer?
Using a common 0.018 CBM carton and 520 USD/CBM LCL rate:
- LCL cost per carton = 0.018 × 520 ≈ 9.36 USD
- For a 10,500 USD 20RF all-in, break-even cartons ≈ 10,500 / 9.36 ≈ 1,120 cartons
- That’s about 11.2 metric tons and roughly 20 CBM
A 20ft reefer can typically carry 1,300–1,600 of these cartons if floor-loaded, depending on airflow gaps and stacking limits. So if you’re regularly at 1,100+ cartons, FCL likely wins.
At 8–12 CBM on Jakarta–Los Angeles, which is better?
Price-wise, LCL. At 8 CBM, your LCL total might land around 4,000–5,200 USD. At 12 CBM, 5,800–7,800 USD. That’s still under a 9,500–12,000 USD FCL. But if you’re moving sashimi-grade or high-value cuts where a temperature excursion is catastrophic, we sometimes recommend “early” FCL at 12–15 CBM just to own the box and the plug. It’s a judgment call tied to product margin and risk tolerance.
Is LCL reefer from Jakarta reliable enough for frozen seafood quality?
Mostly yes for commodity frozen items if you partner with a consolidator that runs weekly CFS windows and has real reefer handling SOPs. Where we see problems:
- Weekend or holiday rollovers that force multi-day unplug at origin CFS.
- Transshipment delays in Singapore or Tanjung Pelepas where groupage stays on the ground longer than planned.
- Mixed-temperature consolidations. If the pool isn’t truly frozen-only at -18°C, say no.
For premium SKUs like Yellowfin Saku (Sushi Grade) or high-fat Bigeye Loin, even brief temperature creep shows up in color and texture. We treat those as FCL-first unless volumes are tiny and the consolidator’s performance is proven.
Which Indonesian ports actually offer consistent reefer LCL in 2025?
- Jakarta (Tanjung Priok): Weekly cutoffs on most tradelanes. Best consolidation depth.
- Surabaya (Tanjung Perak): Fortnightly is common. Some weeks roll if volumes are thin.
- Belawan/Medan: Occasional or monthly. Confirm availability before you promise customers.
- EU lanes via Singapore: Services exist but are less frequent during Suez reroutes. Plan for longer dwell.
20ft vs 40ft reefer: when to switch
- Usable volume. 20RF ≈ 26–28 CBM usable. 40RF ≈ 58–62 CBM usable.
- Weight limits become real on 40RF. With 10 kg masters, 40RF hits payload around 2,700–2,900 cartons (27–29 MT) before volume is full. You won’t fit 3,300 cartons even if CBM suggests you can.
- Cost per kg usually favors 40RF if you can safely approach payload. Example for USWC:
- 40RF all-in: say 12,500–16,000 USD
- At 27 MT loaded, freight ≈ 0.46–0.59 USD/kg
- 20RF at 15 MT loaded and 10,500 USD all-in ≈ 0.70 USD/kg
When to choose 40RF: consistent flows above 20–22 MT per sailing and robust cold storage at destination. Otherwise, two 20RFs give better schedule resilience.
Cold-chain realities that change the math
- LCL consolidation cutoff times. Jakarta CFS for reefer typically closes 3–5 days pre-vessel. Miss it and you roll a week.
- Lead time. FCL Jakarta–LA transit is often 22–28 days port to port. LCL adds 5–10 days with origin dwell and deconsolidation at destination.
- Plug-in and demurrage. In Indonesia terminals, reefer plug-in is commonly 12–25 USD/day. Destination yards can run 35–45 USD/day. Genset rental for dray moves: 90–120 USD/day plus fuel. Free time is often 3–5 days at both ends. Budget this, or a “cheap” FCL turns expensive fast.
- Insurance. We recommend all-risk with temperature deviation coverage for LCL. Claims are harder with co-loaded cargo.
Immediate takeaway: If your destination warehouse can take night/weekend delivery and preclear customs, you’ll avoid most demurrage/plug hits that wreck FCL math.
Two practical moves to hit FCL break-even faster
- Bundle complementary SKUs in one box. We often build 20RFs combining Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught) with whitefish like Grouper Fillet (IQF) or Mahi Mahi Portion (IQF). You keep item-level traceability and hit the 1,100–1,300 carton mark sooner.
- Optimize carton CBM. Switching a 0.021 CBM master to 0.018 CBM can add 150–250 cartons in a 20RF, improving cost/kg without compromising airflow when stacked correctly.
Need help modeling your specific lane and pack sizes? We’re happy to run the numbers with live quotes and your exact carton dimensions. If it’s urgent, Contact us on whatsapp.
Common mistakes that kill savings
- Counting only ocean freight. LCL has per-CBM handling at both ends that add up. FCL has fixed THC, plug, chassis and dray that you must include.
- Ignoring CFS seasonality. Pre-Ramadan and pre-holiday weeks can thin out LCL reefer pools from Surabaya. That’s when we see rollovers.
- Over-palletizing reefers. Most Indonesian seafood shippers floor-load for yield and airflow. Pallet counts are often lower than dry standards. If you must palletize, think ~9–10 US pallets or up to ~11 Euro pallets in a 20RF, subject to your pallet height and door clearance. Always confirm with your 3PL’s spec sheet.
- Mixing temperature profiles in LCL. Frozen-only consolidations win. Don’t accept a -10°C “compromise” if your spec is -18°C.
- Skipping pre-cool. Product core at -18°C before loading. Don’t rely on the box to pull heat.
Apply this today
- Get two current quotes: LCL per CBM and FCL 20RF all-in for your lane. Include O/D and expected plug/genset.
- Measure your master carton CBM. Use 0.018 CBM for a fast estimate if you don’t have exact dimensions.
- Run the two-step break-even. If you’re at 16–22 CBM, you’re likely in FCL territory on US/EU lanes. Under 12 CBM, LCL usually wins unless product risk says otherwise.
If you want a second set of eyes on your numbers, we can share our simple calculator and plug in your SKUs, including mixed builds of items like Pinjalo Fillet (IQF), Goldband Snapper Fillet and Swordfish Steak (IQF). Questions about your project? Call us. Or browse options you can combine to hit your FCL threshold: View our products.