A practical, buyer-first guide to timing Illex argentinus purchases using seasonality, weekly CPUE and landings signals, plus a simple carry-cost breakeven so you can forward-buy Q3–Q4 without overstocking.
If you buy Illex, you don’t need another 101. You need a timing playbook. Over the past few seasons we’ve helped buyers avoid paying the Q3 premium and still sleep at night. Here’s the system that works consistently when the South Atlantic gets noisy.
The three pillars of smart Illex timing
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Know the season calendar. Illex argentinus in the South Atlantic is a fast season with a short window of heavy landings. Price is mostly a function of what hits shore between late January and May. If you miss that window, you’re buying from someone else’s freezer at their price.
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Watch weekly signals. CPUE, landings and auction prints tell you when the market is moving a week before most price sheets do. We track them like hawks in February and March.
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Do the carry math. Forward-buying only pays if the expected price rise beats your all-in carry cost. Most teams don’t quantify this, which is why they either overbuy in March or panic-buy in August.
Seasonality 101: Argentina and Falklands timelines
- Argentina main season. January to May, with peak landings usually mid-February through late March. Ports to watch: Mar del Plata, Puerto Deseado, Comodoro Rivadavia.
- Falklands (FICZ/FOCZ) Illex. Typically February to June, though it can close early if the fleet runs through the TAC quickly. Falklands CPUE is a strong short-term signal for April–May availability.
- Peak landings and sizes. The first big push often brings S–M sizes, with L–U5 improving as the season matures. Size mix matters because processors and retail specs pull different bins at different premiums.
Practical takeaway: The market’s softest spot usually sits in a 3–5 week band during peak landings. Your job is to decide how much to take there, not whether to wait for a perfect bottom. There isn’t one.
Do prices always drop at peak landings?
Usually, but not always to the same extent. In our experience, raw material and processed prices tend to fall 10–25% from early-season offers to the March trough in normal-CPUE years. In low-CPUE or early-closure years, you might only see 5–10%, and the rebound comes faster.
Two traps we see often:
- Buyers wait for a second dip in April that never comes because Falklands CPUE disappoints.
- Teams anchor to last year’s bottom and miss a perfectly fine March floor.
The weekly data that actually moves price
You don’t need a dozen dashboards. Watch these and you’ll be ahead of the curve:
- CPUE and fleet notes. Argentina’s INIDEP updates and Falklands fishery bulletins. A rising CPUE with stable effort usually means more product is imminent. Sustained drops for two weeks often mark the end of the soft window.
- Port landings and auction prints. Mar del Plata and Puerto Deseado weekly landings. Wholesale prices and size mix in local auctions are a leading indicator for exporter offers a week or two later.
- Chinese New Year plant schedules. If CNY falls in early to mid-February, Chinese processors return staggered. That can delay early-season demand and widen the March trough by a week. When CNY is early and returns are slow, we’ve seen an extra 3–5% softness before the bounce.
- Logistics friction. Mar del Plata congestion and reefer space out of ECSA during March–April. Tight space into Asia can offset lower raw material by adding $80–$150/MT to landed cost. Book 2–3 weeks earlier than you think you need.
Practical takeaway: Two consecutive weeks of stronger CPUE plus rising landings, with processors fully back from CNY, is our cue to start layering bookings. Don’t wait for the third week.
A simple carry-cost breakeven that stops guesswork
Forward-buying only makes sense if Expected Q3 price – March price > Carry cost per MT.
Carry cost per MT per month typically includes:
- Cold storage: $18–35/MT
- Capital cost: (Annual interest rate ÷ 12) × purchase price
- Insurance and handling: $2–6/MT
- Shrink/quality loss: 0.5–1.0% of value per quarter if managed well
Example. You’re considering buying in March at $2,250/MT CFR for WR, holding 5 months to sell/consume in August.
- Storage: $25 × 5 = $125
- Capital: 10% APR on $2,250 for 5 months ≈ $94
- Insurance/handling: $15
- Shrink: 0.7% × $2,250 ≈ $16
- Total carry ≈ $250/MT Your breakeven is roughly $2,500/MT in August. If you believe August offers will be $2,600–$2,700/MT based on CPUE and Falklands status, forward-buying pays. If your view is $2,450–$2,550/MT, lighten up.
Need a quick spreadsheet tailored to your storage and financing rates? If you’d like us to plug in your numbers and build a buy plan, just Contact us on whatsapp.
How much should you cover for Q3–Q4?
We use coverage bands rather than single answers. Adjust these by your volatility tolerance and customer stickiness.
- Strong CPUE, normal size mix, Falklands steady. Cover 50–70% of Q3 needs by late March. Add 10–20% in April if CPUE holds. Keep 10–20% open for opportunistic buys or substitutes.
- Mediocre CPUE or early Falklands closure risk. Cap March coverage at 40–50%. Add smaller tranches on signs of recovery. Protect Q3 with substitutes.
- Low CPUE, repeated fleet stand-downs. Keep March coverage 30–40%. Use substitutes more aggressively. Expect a faster Q3 rally.
If substitute flexibility exists, Indonesian Loligo Squid (Whole Round / Whole Cleaned) can carry menus through tight Illex patches, especially for rings and T+T formats. It won’t mimic Illex texture one-to-one in every application, but it avoids paying panic premiums. We can also balance container loads with whitefish you already buy, like Mahi Mahi Fillet or Grouper Fillet (IQF), to keep landed costs efficient.
Illex vs Dosidicus: planning differences that matter
- Season cadence. Illex is a sharp South Atlantic season in Q1–Q2. Dosidicus gigas (jumbo squid) from the Eastern Pacific is more staggered and multi-origin. Supply bumps can hit at different times.
- Product behavior. Dosidicus has a different texture and water-holding profile. Fine for rings and some strips. Less ideal for specs that rely on Illex bite and color.
- Pricing correlation. They correlate in big moves but decouple when one fishery underperforms. Don’t assume Dosidicus will cap Illex prices in a low-CPUE South Atlantic year.
Early Falklands closures and low CPUE years: what to expect
When Falklands closes early or CPUE stays underwhelming for two to three straight weeks late in the season, two things happen:
- The March trough shortens. Prices start rebounding in early April rather than late April.
- Off-season premiums increase. Q3 offers can run 8–15% above the prior year’s average even if logistics are smooth.
This is when we prefer a layered approach: take 40–50% in March, another 20% in early April on confirmation of the tightness, and keep a substitute plan ready. What you avoid is a single giant March buy that blows your carry breakeven if demand softens.
A month-by-month play for 2025–2026
- January. Price discovery. Small trial lots only. Watch size mix and first CPUE prints. Make sure your reefer space and vessel schedules out of Buenos Aires/Montevideo are tentatively booked.
- February. CNY timing matters. As plants reopen, look for two consecutive weeks of rising landings. Start small tranches if you see it.
- March. Primary buy window. Book 40–60% if CPUE is healthy. Pre-book containers 2–3 weeks ahead. Transit to North Asia is often 35–45 days. To the Med, 20–25 days.
- April. Secondary window if CPUE holds and Falklands steady. Top up 10–20% or pivot to substitutes if the fishery looks tight.
- May. Tactical buys only. Watch for logistics premiums creeping in as reefer space tightens.
- June–July. Mostly cleanup shipments. Off-season planning and substitute procurement.
Mistakes we still see (and how to avoid them)
- Waiting for a mythical April bottom. If you’ve already seen two strong CPUE weeks in March, you’re probably in the trough. Layer in.
- Ignoring carry math. If your five-month carry is $240/MT and your expected Q3 lift is $200/MT, you’re speculating, not hedging.
- Over-relying on one origin. Illex can be spiky. Have a Loligo or Dosidicus plan for rings. Keep a whitefish option for menu flexibility.
- Booking logistics too late. A good Illex price can be erased by $150/MT in unforeseen freight and demurrage if you’re scrambling for space out of Mar del Plata during peak.
Quick takeaways you can use this week
- Build a simple breakeven: storage + capital + handling + shrink. If your expected Q3–Q4 lift doesn’t beat it, don’t overbuy.
- Track two-week trends, not single prints. Two solid CPUE weeks plus rising landings often mark the buy zone.
- Layer coverage. Aim for 50–70% by late March in a normal year, then top up. Keep 10–20% open for substitutes.
- Pre-book reefers out of ECSA early. Freight surprises erase smart timing.
If you want a tailored timing plan and a carry-cost calculator with your actual storage and financing numbers, Contact us on whatsapp. And if you’re exploring coverage alternatives or load-balancing with complementary items, you can also View our products.