A practical, no-fluff guide to Indonesian vannamei shrimp pricing by count in 2025. We cover fair FOB bands for PD tail-on, typical spreads between sizes, a step-by-step farm-gate-to-FOB conversion, regional price tendencies, weekly timing, red flags, and how payment terms shape quotes.
If you’re trying to sanity-check an Indonesian shrimp quote in 2025, you’re not alone. Prices look “cheap” one week and puzzling the next. We’ve priced thousands of vannamei deals and here’s the reality: most confusion comes from count-size math, yield assumptions, and payment terms. Get those three right and 9 out of 10 quotes make sense.
We’ll focus on Indonesian vannamei price by count, especially PD tail-on on an FOB basis. We’ll also touch other species at the end so the broader market context is clear.
First, align on formats and language
Shrimp quotes in Indonesia typically show up as:
- HOSO: Head-On, Shell-On. This is the farm-gate reference. Counts are per kilogram (pcs/kg) or per pound (pcs/lb) from farms.
- HLSO: Headless, Shell-On. Sometimes used in export blocks.
- PD: Peeled, Deveined. Tail-on is standard for retail/foodservice buyers in the US/EU.
- PDTO: Peeled, Deveined, Tail-Off. Slightly lower price than PD tail-on for the same count.
Count sizes for PD are per pound. 31/40 means 31 to 40 pieces per lb. Larger shrimp (21/25) carry a premium vs smaller (41/50). This premium comes from yield and demand. Keep that sentence in mind because it explains most price gaps you’ll see.
What is a fair FOB price for Indonesian 31/40 PD tail-on in 2025?
Here’s the thing. Fair price depends on three levers: farm-gate HOSO level, PD yield, and conversion costs (processing, packaging, overhead, and margin). Instead of chasing spot quotes, use a quick triangulation:
- Start with your HOSO farm-gate price in IDR/kg. Convert to USD using current FX.
- Apply a realistic yield from HOSO to PD tail-on. For vannamei in 2025, we see typical PD tail-on recovery of 50–55% from HOSO, with larger sizes yielding higher.
- 16/20: 58–60%
- 21/25: 55–58%
- 26/30: 53–56%
- 31/40: 50–54%
- 41/50: 48–52%
- Divide the HOSO cost by the yield to get raw equivalent cost per kg of finished PD tail-on.
- Add processing and packing. In 2025, efficient Indonesian plants typically run PD tail-on all-in conversion at about 0.80–1.20 USD/kg finished, depending on spec and packaging.
- Add plant margin and port/FOB costs, then subtract any by-product credit (heads/shells). Net add often lands around 0.40–0.70 USD/kg finished after credits.
Worked example for 31/40 PD tail-on:
- Suppose farm-gate HOSO equivalent is 2.70 USD/kg.
- Use a 52% yield. Raw equivalent cost = 2.70 / 0.52 ≈ 5.19 USD/kg PD.
- Add conversion + margin + port net 0.40–0.70.
- Indicative FOB: roughly 5.60–5.90 USD/kg PD tail-on.
If your farm-gate HOSO assumption or yield differs, the math will push the result up or down. But this is the fastest way to know whether a 31/40 PD quote is sensible for Indonesia in 2025.
Practical takeaway: for standard-spec 31/40 PD tail-on, many legitimate quotes cluster in the mid-5s USD/kg FOB Indonesia. If you’re seeing something far below that with normal terms, pressure test the yield, the glaze, and the payment terms.
How much more should 21/25 cost than 31/40 from Indonesia?
We benchmark premiums using adjacent-count steps. In our experience, 2025 spreads on PD tail-on typically look like this:
- 41/50 to 31/40: +6–10%
- 31/40 to 26/30: +6–12%
- 26/30 to 21/25: +8–12%
- 21/25 to 16/20: +10–15%
So 21/25 vs 31/40 often carries a 15–22% premium. The exact percentage flexes with demand, promotions in key retail markets, and how tight larger sizes are at the farms that week.
If a supplier quotes 21/25 only 5% above 31/40, and their 26/30 is oddly expensive, you’re probably looking at a mismatched size curve or a stock-clearance odd lot.
How do I convert an Indonesian farm-gate HOSO price to a realistic PD FOB quote?
Use this five-line calculator the next time a farm number hits your inbox:
-
Inputs:
A) HOSO farm-gate price (USD/kg).
B) Target PD tail-on yield fraction (0.50–0.60 depending on size and spec).
C) Conversion and packing cost (USD/kg finished).
D) Net overhead + margin + port costs minus by-product credit (USD/kg). -
Calculation:
FOB PD tail-on = (A / B) + C + D
Quick guardrails we recommend for 2025:
- B: Use the yield ranges listed earlier by count.
- C: 0.80–1.20 USD/kg for mainstream PD tail-on with retail-capable packaging.
- D: 0.40–0.70 USD/kg after by-product credit.
If your math produces an FOB well below 5 USD/kg for 31/40 PD with normal specs and terms, recheck your inputs. Odds are the yield or conversion costs are too optimistic.
If you need help pressure-testing a quote against current farm-gate and yields, share your count, spec, and terms and we’ll run it back with you. You can Contact us on whatsapp.
Which Indonesian regions usually price lower in 2025?
We see East Java and Lampung frequently clearing at the sharper end of the market. High farm density, shorter haul to Surabaya, and more plants competing for the same lots help. South Sulawesi and NTB can print slightly higher farm-gate levels, especially when pond survivals dip. As a rule of thumb, regional differences of 1–4% are common. Larger gaps usually resolve within a week as buyers arbitrate volumes across islands.
How often do vannamei prices change, and when are weekly lows?
Farm-gate HOSO can shift daily. Processor FOB indications typically reset once or twice a week, but can move intraweek when international demand pulses. The best time to catch a weekly low is often midweek once plants lock their line schedules and still have a gap to fill. Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning Jakarta time is a sweet spot more often than not.
We’ve also found that quotes for loadings 2–3 weeks out sometimes price better than immediate shipment, because plants can plan head-on procurement and labor around your spec.
Red flags that a shrimp quote is mispriced for the stated count size
- PD price lower than HLSO for the same count and spec. That rarely pencils once you add processing.
- Unrealistic yields. If someone backs PD 31/40 from HOSO using 58–60% recovery, you’re looking at headless math sneaking into a head-on conversion.
- Spreads out of order. 26/30 cheaper than 31/40 or 21/25 only 2–3% above 31/40 without a reason.
- Glaze opacity. FOB is for net weight. If a price looks too good, check whether they’re effectively pricing gross weight via paperwork or tolerance.
- Missing spec detail. Moisture controls, phosphate/additives policy, packing format (IVP/IWP/IQF), and count tolerance matter. Vague specs hide costs that show up later.
- Terms that aren’t apples-to-apples. A “cheap” TT-with-90%-post-shipment offer isn’t the same as LC at sight.
Do payment terms (TT vs LC) change the FOB price?
Yes. In 2025 we typically see:
- TT with deposit and balance against BL copy: baseline.
- LC at sight: +0.5–1.0% to cover bank and paperwork risk.
- LC with extended usance or open terms: +1.0–2.0% depending on tenor and bank.
If two quotes differ on terms, normalize to a common baseline before you compare per-kg prices.
Other Indonesian species: quick context
While vannamei drives volume conversations, premium whitefish and pelagics set a different tone in 2025. Buyers who shift a portion of menus away from shrimp often look at IQF fillets and portions that carry steady premiums but stable yield math. If you’re diversifying, review Indonesia-origin options like Grouper Fillet (IQF) and Mahi Mahi Fillet for retail and foodservice. And for shrimp programs spanning multiple specs, our Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught) reference summarises the formats we run across HOSO, HLSO, PD, and PDTO.
Fast-reference takeaways you can use today
- For Indonesian 31/40 PD tail-on, a fair FOB often pencils in the mid-5s USD/kg when you run the farm-gate-to-FOB math with realistic yields and conversion costs.
- Expect roughly 15–22% premium for 21/25 vs 31/40, with 6–12% steps between adjacent counts.
- Convert HOSO to PD FOB using: FOB = (farm-gate USD/kg ÷ yield) + conversion + net overhead/margin. Use 50–55% PD tail-on yields for 31/40.
- East Java and Lampung tend to be sharper. South Sulawesi and NTB can run a few points higher depending on pond conditions.
- Shop midweek and 2–3 weeks ahead for cleaner line scheduling and better odds on a low.
Questions about your current quote or spec? Share your count size, target pack, and terms and we’ll benchmark it against live inputs. View our products to see formats we run, or Contact us on whatsapp if you want us to run the yield math on your numbers.