A calculator-first, buyer-focused guide from the Indonesia‑Seafood Team on how IDR–USD moves pass through to Indonesian shrimp FOB prices in 2024–2025. Includes a simple formula, real-world lags, pass-through ranges, price-band planning for 2025, and a copyable FX clause.
If you buy or sell Indonesian shrimp, you already know the farm price is only half the story. What often decides your landed margin is the rupiah. We’ve spent years mapping how IDR swings translate into USD per kilo quotes, and in 2024’s volatile market we saw the same pattern play out again. The pass-through is material, but it’s not 1:1 and it rarely happens overnight.
Here’s a practical way to quantify it, plan 2025 price bands, and add an FX clause that keeps both sides sane.
The three pillars of IDR-to-USD pass-through
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Cost stack, not headlines. Most of a shrimp packer’s costs are rupiah. Farmgate raw material. Labor. Utilities. Local logistics. Some inputs are USD priced or USD linked. Master cartons, certain additives, and finance costs. Ocean freight sits outside FOB but affects CFR planning. The more IDR in the stack, the stronger the pass-through to your USD FOB.
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The reference rate actually used. In our experience, Indonesian exporters reference one of three rates when quoting USD.
- Bank TT (telegraphic transfer) buy/sell from their house bank. Common for day-to-day hedging.
- JISDOR (Bank Indonesia’s daily reference). Often used as a neutral benchmark.
- Customs “Kurs Pajak.” Important for import/export declarations, but less common for live offers. Most quotes anchor to a bank TT or JISDOR of the quote day, sometimes with a small buffer. That choice alone can swing a quote by 0.5–1.0% on volatile days.
- Timing and inventory. There’s a lag. Quotes usually adjust within 3–7 working days when the rupiah moves sharply. If a packer holds forward cover or inventory bought at earlier exchange rates, the lag can stretch 2–4 weeks. Fresh buying for new POs re-synchronizes price to spot FX faster.
Takeaway. If 65–80% of the FOB cost stack is IDR, a 1% weaker rupiah typically reduces USD FOB by 0.65–0.80% after the lag. If the share of USD inputs is higher, pass-through shrinks.
A simple calculator you can reuse
We keep the math simple so it’s usable in a live negotiation.
USD_FOB_per_kg ≈ [IDR costs per kg finished ÷ FX] + USD costs per kg + USD margin per kg
Where “IDR costs per kg finished” = [(farmgate IDR per kg raw ÷ processing yield to finished) + IDR processing + IDR inland logistics + IDR overhead]. Yields vary by spec. For vannamei, rough rules of thumb many buyers use:
- HOSO to HLSO: 84–88% yield.
- HLSO to PTO: 65–72%.
- PUD/PDTO: 48–55% depending on count and trim.
Worked example for vannamei PTO 26/30.
- Farmgate HOSO: IDR 60,000 per kg (example).
- Yield to PTO: 52%.
- Processing, inland, overhead in IDR: IDR 10,000 per kg finished.
- USD inputs at FOB stage: packaging 0.15, finance 0.05. Margin target 0.20.
- FX: 16,000 IDR per USD.
IDR costs per kg finished ≈ [(60,000 ÷ 0.52) + 10,000] = 125,385 IDR. Converted to USD: 125,385 ÷ 16,000 = 7.84 USD. Add USD inputs and margin: 7.84 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.20 ≈ 8.24 USD/kg FOB.
Exchange rate sensitivity you can do in your head.
- Step 1. Estimate the IDR share S of total FOB cost at current FX. In the example, IDR costs are 7.84 of the 8.24 total, so S ≈ 95%. Most plants run lower S in real life due to more USD-linked inputs. We typically see S between 60% and 85% for vannamei FOB.
- Step 2. A 1% weaker rupiah reduces USD price roughly by S%. If S = 70%, a 1% IDR depreciation lowers USD FOB ≈ 0.7% once the lag passes.
- Step 3. For a 6.50 USD/kg item with S = 70%, each 1% IDR depreciation moves the price by about 0.045 USD/kg.
If you want us to run your exact spec, size mix and factory yields through this calculator, just Contact us on whatsapp.
How quickly do quotes change when IDR moves?
For most shrimp packers, USD offers shift within 3–7 business days after a meaningful FX move. We’ve seen same-day adjustments when volatility is extreme or when buyers request freight-on-board holds with daily FX updates. Quotes can lag 2–4 weeks if the plant is working through inventories bought at a different exchange rate or under forward cover.
Practical tip. If IDR weakens sharply today, you often have a short window to lock a better USD FOB before the new FX fully flows through. This is especially true when you are placing a fresh-production PO, not pulling from old stock.
What share of an IDR swing shows up in vannamei FOB quotes?
Our rule of thumb for 2024–2025.
- Vannamei FOB: 60–85% pass-through after lag.
- Tuna loins/saku: 40–65% because more USD-linked costs and different value chains.
For buyers of shrimp across specs, this means a 2% IDR depreciation typically lowers USD FOB by about 1.2–1.7%, assuming supply and farm prices are steady.
Why are 2025 shrimp offers higher even though the rupiah is weaker?
We hear this weekly. A weaker rupiah should help, so why are quotes up?
- Farmgate rose in IDR. The FX benefit can be erased if raw material climbs 5–10%.
- Size mix shifted smaller. Yield to finished product falls, raising cost per kg.
- USD-priced inputs ticked up. Packaging, additives, or finance costs can climb faster than FX moves.
- Forward cover. Packer may be hedged at a stronger IDR from prior months.
- Spec creep. Slight trim or glaze changes materially change the math.
Always request a spec-by-spec breakdown and confirm which FX reference and date the quote uses. For example, for vannamei we can quote using your desired spec from our Frozen Shrimp (Black Tiger, Vannamei & Wild Caught) line, with yield and trim clarified up front.
Which exchange rate do exporters use in practice?
We see three patterns.
- Bank TT rate from the exporter’s principal bank at time of quote. Most common for live POs.
- JISDOR daily average. Used as neutral benchmark, sometimes with a fixed spread added.
- A weekly average to smooth volatility. Helpful for long-validity offers.
Ask your supplier to state the rate source, date, and any spread. For example. “USD rate = JISDOR close 15,950 plus 0.5%.” That small line avoids a lot of friction later.
Does USD-priced freight cancel the benefit of a weaker rupiah?
Not for FOB, because ocean freight is outside. On CFR or DDP deals, yes, rising freight can offset FX gains quickly. In 2024, we saw spot freight to the US and EU swing enough to add 0.30–0.70 USD/kg on some lanes. That easily cancels a modest IDR depreciation at the same time.
Practical takeaway. Separate the conversation. Lock your FOB on an agreed FX reference and pass-through. Then manage freight as a separate lever.
Add this FX clause to stabilize your contract price
Copy and adapt this wording.
“Base FX rate: [Source] on [Date]. Base USD price: [X.XX]/kg FOB Surabaya for [Spec]. FX adjustment: For shipments loading after [Date+30], price will adjust by [Pass-through %] of the percentage change in [Source] from base to the FX fixing date [7 days before loading]. No adjustment if change is within ±0.75%.”
Notes from our team.
- Keep the pass-through aligned with the IDR cost share for that spec, usually 60–80%.
- Add a small neutral band to avoid constant micro-changes.
- Fix the “FX fixing date” to an objective moment tied to production or loading.
Set 2025 price bands in 10 minutes
We use three FX scenarios and a single pass-through factor per spec. Example baseline. 6.80 USD/kg FOB for PTO 26/30 at 16,000 IDR/USD with 70% pass-through.
- Scenario A. 15,500 IDR. Rupiah strengthens 3.1%. USD FOB rises ≈ 3.1% × 0.70 = 2.2%. New band top ≈ 6.95.
- Scenario B. 16,500 IDR. Rupiah weakens 3.1%. USD FOB falls ≈ 2.2%. New band ≈ 6.65.
- Scenario C. 17,500 IDR. Rupiah weakens 9.4%. USD FOB falls ≈ 6.6%. New band ≈ 6.35.
Layer farmgate scenarios on top if you need tighter planning. A 2,500 IDR/kg farmgate rise adds about 0.16 USD/kg to the example price at 16,000.
How to sanity-check a quote against Indonesia’s official data
BPS (Statistics Indonesia) publishes monthly export unit values by HS code. It is not a spec-level mirror, but it is a useful anchor when FX is volatile.
- Pull HS 030617 or 030635 series relevant to your shrimp form.
- Compute a 3-month rolling USD/kg average.
- Adjust for spec. PTO/PUD tend to sit materially above HLSO.
- Expect quality and grade premia. High count, tight moisture and low glaze push quotes above the BPS average.
If your offer sits 10–15% above the adjusted BPS average after spec corrections, ask for a cost stack or yield explanation. Nine times out of ten, it is a yield, size mix, or trim difference.
Common mistakes buyers make in FX-driven negotiations
- Chasing spot FX without checking yield. A 2% FX win is nothing if your spec loses 3 points of yield.
- Ignoring the rate source. Bank TT vs JISDOR can be 0.5–1.0% apart on a bad day.
- Mixing FOB and CFR logic. Freight volatility can hide the FX benefit. Split the levers.
We recommend locking a fair pass-through and a clear rate source. Then revisit freight separately and update once a week during booking windows.
Final thought
Currency is a lever, not a silver bullet. If you quantify the IDR share, state the rate source, and write a short FX clause, you remove 80% of the confusion. From there, farm prices, yields, and spec do the rest.
If you want a second set of eyes on your 2025 price bands or an apples-to-apples comparison on vannamei specs, we’re happy to help. You can View our products or message us and we’ll run your numbers through our calculator with real yields from current production.